Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Archer launched its “Launch Edition” commercialization program, naming Abu Dhabi Aviation as the first customer, and stated it is on track to deliver its first revenue-generating Midnight aircraft later in 2025 . Liquidity ended Q4 at $834.5M and increased to over $1B following a $301.75M equity raise in February, strengthening funding for commercialization and the defense hybrid VTOL program with Anduril .
• Manufacturing ramp progressed: ARC factory is operational with plans to build up to 10 Midnight aircraft in 2025 (three instrumented for flight testing and the remainder for Launch Edition deployments); first ARC aircraft targeted for completion by early summer .
• Guidance pivoted from non-GAAP OpEx to Adjusted EBITDA; Archer guided Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA loss of $95–$110M, consistent with ongoing investment in engineering, manufacturing and commercialization .
• Key catalysts ahead include first piloted flight (“really soon”), additional Launch Edition customers, UAE deployments and further FAA certification progress; management expects each Launch Edition arrangement to generate “tens of millions” of revenue and be margin positive .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Launch Edition monetization and ADA partner: Archer introduced a repeatable pre-certification commercialization playbook with Abu Dhabi Aviation as the first customer; management expects each partnership to generate “tens of millions” of revenue and be margin positive, with $10–$15M per aircraft as a back-of-the-envelope range .
• Manufacturing execution and scale: ARC factory completed; plan to build up to 10 aircraft in 2025 for FAA testing and early deployments; first ARC aircraft targeted by early summer, positioning Archer as “the first eVTOL OEM” scaling piloted aircraft production in the U.S. .
• Liquidity strength: Q4 cash and equivalents of $834.5M and total liquidity over $1B post-February raise; Stellantis in-principle up to ~$400M manufacturing support further derisks scaling .

What Went Wrong

• Certification timing and lumpy progress: FAA Phase 4 compliance findings stood at ~12% in Q3; one industry-wide issue paper (2105G controlled emergency landing) remains to be closed. Management acknowledged timelines “taken longer than we may have projected,” though design maturity has increased .
• Continued losses amid ramp: Q4 GAAP net loss was $(198.1)M and Adjusted EBITDA $(94.8)M, reflecting ongoing investment in development, testing and manufacturing scale-up; non-GAAP OpEx flat q/q but elevated for growth initiatives .
• Limited visibility on defense program specifics: Anduril hybrid VTOL opportunity described as “very real,” but timing and program-of-record pathway not disclosed due to sensitivity; near-term revenue cadence remains uncertain .

Financial Results

Quarterly Operating Metrics

Full-Year Metrics and YoY

Notes:

• Non-GAAP adjustments include stock-based compensation ($23.9M in Q4) and warrant expenses (e.g., Stellantis warrants), among others .
• Liquidity exceeded $1B after the February 2025 financing .

Segment Breakdown

• Not applicable; Archer did not report revenue by segment and remains pre-commercial revenue for its Midnight eVTOL; financial disclosure focused on OpEx, net loss, Adjusted EBITDA and liquidity .

KPIs and Operating Updates

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We’re on track to begin deploying revenue-generating Midnight aircraft later this year… Our business today spans three integrated vectors… civilian Midnight, defense (hybrid VTOL with Anduril), and software… It’s time to build.” — Adam Goldstein .
• “This aircraft will be the eighth full-scale eVTOL that myself and our Chief Engineer have successfully built and flown… While it’s taken longer than we may have projected, this thoroughness ensures the safety of our pilots.” — Thomas Muniz .
• “We exited 2024 with $835 million of cash and cash equivalents… our current liquidity position is over $1 billion… For Q1 2025, we anticipate Adjusted EBITDA to be a loss of $95 million to $110 million.” — Priya Gupta .
• “ADA will be Archer’s first Launch Edition customer… with plans to deploy an initial fleet of Midnight aircraft beginning later this year.” — Press Release .

Q&A Highlights

• Launch Edition commercial model: Management expects $10–$15M per aircraft as a rough range, with margin-positive fixed-price arrangements focused on standing up networks (training, maintenance, ops) rather than per-trip revenues .
• Production scale and monetization: “We found a pathway to monetize every single aircraft we can build,” with tens of aircraft in 2025–2026 and scaled volumes beyond 2027; early deployments will shape operators’ capabilities .
• FAA certification cadence: One open industry issue paper (2105G) remains; compliance findings should “tick up” through 2025; first piloted flight “really soon” with mature type-design aircraft .
• Abu Dhabi operations: Targeted UAE delivery of first piloted Midnight this summer; testing in high-temperature and dusty environments; no region-specific hardware tailoring anticipated pending tests .
• Software revenue potential: Building across booking, movement control and autonomy; management sees software becoming a significant revenue line and a key to scaling safe operations .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS was not retrievable at the time of analysis due to S&P Global daily request limit; therefore, estimate comparisons for revenue/EPS are unavailable. Where estimate-based comparisons would normally be shown, please note this temporary data unavailability from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near-term catalysts: first piloted flight, ADA Launch Edition deployments, additional Launch Edition partners, and UAE summer delivery; each can validate commercialization and drive narrative momentum .
• Liquidity runway: >$1B total liquidity plus Stellantis in-principle ~$400M manufacturing support derisks scale-up; supports both civil and defense vectors through 2025–2026 .
• Operational proof points: ARC production start, up to 10 aircraft in 2025, and Part 141 pilot training certification are tangible steps toward revenue-generation and service readiness .
• Revenue model clarity: Launch Edition fixed-price arrangements aim to be margin positive, with per-aircraft economics in the $10–$15M range initially; management expects “tens of millions” per partnership and a global playbook .
• Defense optionality: Anduril hybrid VTOL program is positioned for larger-than-expected demand, potentially creating multibillion-dollar programs of record without FAA certification, diversifying revenue streams .
• Certification trajectory: While lumpy, Archer is advancing safety-of-flight testing and compliance submissions; the industry-wide 2105G paper’s resolution and ongoing Phase 4 findings will be key milestones .
• Trading implications: Stock likely sensitive to execution milestones (piloted flight, UAE delivery, Launch Edition contracts signed, Stellantis definitive agreements), as these validate commercialization timing and reduce perceived regulatory and manufacturing risk .